Photo above, from hot air balloon, is of Flat Creek, northeast of Jackson Hole, Wyoming (I think).
Image above is the radar forecast from the 18 UTC run (yesterday and valid at 5:00 pm yesterday) of the WRF-GFS at Atmo - totally suppressed. Plot of detected CG flashes (below) is for 12-hours ending at midnight last night. Indeed, Arizona and most of Sonora were totally void of any storm activity as per model forecast.
Since we are halfway through October, an important question is: will there be any rain at all this month here in Tucson? Too soon to tell, but the forecast at bottom (from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast today) is valid at 06 UTC on October 25th and looks grim.
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