Damp and foggy up in Summerhaven this morning - no snow on ground at the General Store.
Showers finally began here at house a bit before 6:00 pm MST last evening. Gauge here has 0.15" this morning. Amounts across ALERT network (above and below) were generally 0.15" or less and a few sites had less than 0.04". Greatest rainfall was up on Mt. Lemmon.
At 500 mb (above) the 12 UTC analysis indicates a closed circulation center near Vandenberg AFB, California, but with the larger trough extending far to the southwest. Satellite loops show a couple of circulation centers within the trough. Water vapor image below is from 7:00 am MST. There's a strong inflow of very dry air air from south of the circulation centers northeastward across southern California and into Nevada. This dry air could impact how things evolve over Arizona next couple of days.
The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) are now focussed on tomorrow and tomorrow night as a significant event for the metro area (average of plumes over 0.60" at airport). However, the 06 UTC WRF-GFS run from Atmo has a much different forecast (below for total precipitation through 5:00 pm on Friday the thirteenth). Note the very large, donut hole minimum centered just north of eastern Pima County and the zero amount at the airport.
Hope the outcome next couple of days favors the GEFS.
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