Rainy morning at the Prescott airport above. Rains in Arizona during the night have stayed well north to west of our area, and it will be interesting to see whether showers reach the metro area by afternoon.
The 500 mb charts here are from the 06 UTC GFS forecasts. Above is valid at 12 UTC (5:00 am MST) today, while below is for 12 UTC on Friday the 13th. The slow moving, closed low will be finally crossing Arizona by the end of week.
Above is IR satellite image from 13 UTC this morning, while below shows MIMIC PW from 12 UTC. Both indicate that the closed low is well west of San Diego (as per first 500 mb forecast above). The PW analysis indicates a broad plume of very moist air pointed toward the Southwest. This will be the first significant intrusion of subtropical moisture into Arizona for 2020.
At bottom is regional radar from 5:00 am MST, showing precipitation over parts of central Arizona north of Phoenix.
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