View south from Kitt Peak early this morning shows some fog and stratus at lower elevations. View at bottom is sunrise on Saturday from northwest of Sonoita.
At 500 mb this morning (12 UTC analysis above from NCAR RAP) an elongated low is centered just northwest of San Diego. This low will swing south and east, moving into northern Sonora tonight and passing to our south by morning tomorrow.
Current outlook graphic from NWS above. Below is 06 UTC GEFS forecasts of precipitation for the airport - focus is on tonight and into tomorrow morning. Amounts are light, with the ensemble average forecasting about 0.15 inches at airport.
The forecast sounding for TWC above (from 06 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo and valid at midnight tonight) is moist to above 500 mb, but PW is only a bit more than half an inch. Precipitation amounts below are from same model forecast and and are valid through noon tomorrow. Event impacts mostly southeast Arizona and northwest Mexico.
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