Chaotic skies this morning with dark clouds, some blue sky, and muted sunshine on campus.
At 500 mb this morning (above) a sharp trough to the west is about to cross over Yuma (analysis from NOAA indicates a closed low out there but if it was, it is opening quickly). The 06 UTC GFS forecast below (valid at 18 UTC today) indicates the strong trough approaching our area.
The TWC/TUS sounding this morning (above) was quite dry - PW of only 0.32" - with strong southwest winds aloft. In contrast, Yuma's sounding at 12 UTC (below) was more moist (PW almost half an inch) - note the very low tropopause around 500 mb and the westerly winds below.
Shower activity was approaching the metro area from the southwest at 7:40 am MST (above), and the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecasts two lines of echoes moving across southeast Arizona at 11:00 am, later this morning.
Big question here at house is whether there'll be measurable rain in gauge at end of day.
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