Nice, pre-sunrise color looking toward Redington pass about 6:30 am MST this morning.
This morning's TWC/TUS upper-air sounding (above) has light winds below 500 mb and perhaps a sliver of well-mixed, afternoon BL CAPE around 500 mb.
Plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS runs indicate gusty winds likely on Wednesday (above). The trend for PW this week is forecast to start out around 0.75" and gradually decrease to around 0.50" (below) by next Tuesday.
The morning 500 mb analysis (above) shows basically a very large ridge stretching from south-central Mexico north through Montana and into Canada. There is a very weak short-wave moving through the ridge today. Forecast from 06 UTC GFS (below) indicates the ridge intensifying and shifting a bit westward during the coming two weeks. As would be expected, given such a dismal setting, the GFS forecast for precipitation through next two weeks (second below) indicates a continued, long period of dry conditions for all of the Southwest
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