View toward the Rincons before sunrise this morning, showing nearly cloudless skies. Even though it is late October, temperatures remain summer-like over southeast Arizona. The high temperature at the airport yesterday reached 100 F, breaking the old record from 1921 of 99 F. High today could also hit record levels (record currently 97 F in 2003).
Most interesting weather is far to the south, as Hurricane Norma moves slowly northward toward southern Baja (IR image from 1520 UTC this morning shown above). Norma briefly reached Category 4 strength yesterday afternoon (sustained winds reached 115 kt). Current morning outlook for Norma's track (below from NHC) indicates storm brushing southern Baja and going ashore in central Mexico.
Question for early next week is whether or not moisture moving northward as Norma advances will make it into southeastern Arizona, The WRF-GFS forecast for PW from 00 UTC - below - is valid at 5:00 pm MST on Monday the 23rd. That forecast is keeping the higher moisture to our south. This will be main thing to watch during the coming weekend.
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