Monday, October 16, 2023

Waiting For Fall



View of the Catalinas at 8:15 am MST today shows another morning with cloudless skies.

Analysis of TPW (above - from 15 UTC) shows very dry conditions across almost all of the continental US. While the 12 UTC morning sounding from TWC/TUS (below) shows low PW, no CAPE, and quite variable winds aloft.


Somehow the WRF model runs forecast an increase in PW during the day today, with light showers at, or near, the airport. Forecast above is from the 00 UTC WRF-GFS and is valid through 5>00 am on October 23rd. Very warm forecast for next five days from the NWS this morning (below) indicates that slight chance for the airport tomorrow. Looks like we've still got some waiting to do before "Fall" makes an appearance!


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