Sunday, June 16, 2024

Looking Ahead

View toward the Rincons at a bit before 5:00 am MST this morning shows cloudless skies, as 100 F+ heat continues during the afternoons.

Headline and article in yesterday's Tucson Dailey Star indicated that the summer monsoon had started here. Actually, yesterday was the start of what the NWS has, unfortunately, designated the "Monsoon Season". However, the summer thunderstorm pattern has not yet setup.

Forecasts from the 06 UTC run of the GFS model - through 18 UTC on the 23rd of Jun (above) and through 18 UTC on the 30th (below) - indicate that a favorable monsoon 500 mb pattern tries to setup, with weak anticyclone centers over western New Mexico and the Texas Big Bend country, by next weekend. However, a large trough is forecast to dominate the West by the end of June. John Glueck's statements above are probably more accurate than the article itself.

Forecast for total rainfall (again from the GFS forecast - second below) keep rainfall off to our east through the 1st of July.

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