Thursday, June 27, 2024

Suppressed Again


Chaotic sky overhead this morning at 5:45 am MST.


Yesterday was again suppressed, as was forecast by the RF-RR (see previous post). Plot of detected CG flashes (above from Vaisala and Atmo- through 0703 UTC last night) shows only several flashes in all of Pima County. Plot of MesoWest rainfall through 7:30 am this morning (below) shows nothing over the metro area.



At 500 mb (above), yesterday's weak trough has pushed into New Mexico, leaving most of West under influence of trough over the Northwest. The anticyclone now has a single circulation center over southwest Texas.


The morning TWC/TUS  upper-air sounding (above) has some mid-level CAPE, but it's not clear if there'll be enough heating for some storms to develop. The 12 UTC forecast from the WRF-RR (below) keeps metro area dry through 5:00 pm tomorrow.

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