Moisture Returns This Week

Clear skies over the Rincons at 5:00 am MST this morning. After about 80 days since the last rainfall here at the house, it looks like we may get an early start to the summer thunderstorm season after all. 

The current morning forecast from the NWS for the airport is shown below - note the high POPs Thursday through Sunday!

As low-level moisture pushes in from the east tomorrow (helped by the tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico - now Tropical Storm Alberto) winds become gusty. Current wind gust graphic for tomorrow from the NWS shown above. Current 06 UTC forecast for winds tomorrow from the WRF-GFS run at Atmo (below - valid at 10 pm) indicates even more extensive strong winds over southeastern Arizona.

The 500 mb forecast from the 06 UTC GFS run (above) shows the anticyclone well-developed and centered near the Four Corners by 06 UTC on the 26th of June.

Plumes for surface Td (above from the 06 UTC GEFS runs) indicate a big jump tomorrow, with averages holding 55 to 60 F for rest of the week. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS for PW shown below is valid at 0100 UTC on the 22nd (Saturday). Note that high moisture has also moved northward into southern Arizona from the Gulf of California. 

Forecast from the 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS above is for total rainfall through 11 PM on the 23rd of June. The forecast from the GFS for total precipitation through July 3rd at 06 UTC indicates that the summer monsoon has become well-established!