Friday, June 21, 2024

Storms NE Metro Yesterday

View toward Redington Pass at about 5:30 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes (above, from Atmo and Vaisala) through 0703Z (just after midnight) shows that thunderstorms occurred over just a sliver of eastern Pima County yesterday. I did not hear any thunder here at house, where there was no rain. Plot of ALERT observations through 6 am this morning (below) shows that rain was limited mostly to mountains and northeast portion of the metro area.

The morning 500 mb analysis (above) shows that Arizona continues under the influence of the trough over California, while the remnant trough from TS Alberto extends into northeastern Mexico.
Plumes for the 06 GEFS shown here - for PW and QPF at the airport (above and below). The PW forecasts continues high values through the period, but with significance variance by end of week. The QPF forecasts indicates frequent shower activity through the week. Still hoping for rain in the gauge here! 

The GFS forecast from 06 UTC (bottom) for total precipitation through July 7th is very optimistic.

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