Some sunrise color looking toward Redington Pass at about 6:10 am MST this morning.
The morning 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) shows a chopped up pattern over the Southwest, with a couple of weak shortwaves. The remnants of TS Ileana have apparently dissipated over the southern GoC.
The 12 UTC sounding from TWC/TUS (above, also from SPC) already has over an inch of PW, with considerable CAPE present. Winds are light below 400 mb and steering flow this afternoon would likely be from the west.
Forecast above is from the 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS and shows PW at midnight tomorrow - note that current values in southeast Arizona are already at these values. Forecast below shows accumulated rainfall - from same model run - through 6:00 am on Tuesday morning. Highest amounts are focused from Santa Cruz and eastern Pima Counties northward toward the Rim area.
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