Scattered clouds over the Catalinas at a bit after 5:00 am MST this morning.
There was little to report yesterday, with no CGs over southeastern Arizona and no rainfall reported across the ALERT network. Very dry here, and I'm starting to water some of the plants.
Map above shows NWS warnings and advisories in effect today: Purple shows excessive heat warning areas; orange indicates heat advisories; red regions are under Red Flag warnings for high wildfire threats; and gray areas have air quality advisories in place. Tucson is just within the purple area - note that at airport at 7:00 am this morning temperature was 87 F and winds were gusting over 30 mph.
The morning 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) shows the western anticyclone is elongated from northern Baja northeastward to southern Wyoming. The morning TWC/TUS sounding (below, also from SPC) indicates fairly dry conditions with little CAPE. Winds aloft are westerly to northerly, while winds below 700 mb are southeasterly and fairly strong, so some gusty afternoon winds likely.
Plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS for QPF at the airport (above) indicate a dry week ahead, as does the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast from Atmo - below, for period ending at 5:00 am next Friday the 13th of September.
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