Windy Today

Pinkish hue to clouds over the Catalinas this morning just before sunrise Sunrise at Wilcox (bottom) featured pink to orange to yellow hues.

Plumes for wind speeds (above from 06 UTC GEFS runs) indicate windy today and again on Sunday. Graphic below shows 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast for steady wind speeds at 3:30 pm MST this afternoon.

Morning forecast from NWS (above) indicates "breezy" conditions today, and detailed forecast mentions wind gusts as high as 36 mph. Gusts this high seem "windy" to me. So I checked NWS terminology definitions and found the table below.

The forecast indicates sustained winds of 17 to 22 mph, which includes both breezy and windy conditions. If the WRF and NWS forecasts verify, I'll consider it windy this afternoon.

Looking out to Sunday, the GFS forecast for 500 mb (valid at 18 UTC - above) shows a very strong short wave digging into Arizona. This feature will again be starved for moisture. However, most members of the GEFS (QPF plumes below) do forecast measurable rainfall at the airport. 

March 14th - Pi Day

Early sunlight brushes the Catalinas this morning.

Today is Pi Day - which celebrates mathematics, because today is 3/14, which are the first three digits of the important constant Pi (3.14159265...........). In reality, today ends up as a bonus for bakeries and pizza places.

We're now in middle March and looking at a fairly quiet and warm week ahead. The GEFS plumes above (from 06 UTC runs) for winds indicates windy on Wednesday, and then again on Sunday. While the plumes for temperature (below) show a mild week, and then a big cool-down next Sunday and Monday.

The 500

 

The 500 mb forecast (above from 06 UTC GFS) shows a strong system over the Southwest at 11:00 pm MST next Sunday night. This system will bring a chance for precipitation, according to that model run.  Forecast below shows 36-hour precipitation for period ending at 18 UTC on March 22nd. If it were to verify, it would be first measurable precipitation here at house since February 23/24. Of course this is a long-range outlook and we need to track things between now and then.

Overview Plus Week Ahead

View of Catalinas this morning showing a few low clouds on and near the mountains. View at bottom shows that Summerhaven got a light covering of snow last night.

The 24 hour plot of ALERT network precipitation (above - ending at 7:30 am MST) indicates only one site received  0.04" or more - that was Cienega Creek. Yesterday's WRF forecast was far and away better than the other forecasts, since there was little precipitation in Metro area, barring a Trace here and there, and the measurable at Ciengea Creek, plus many sites in Cochise County (WRF did miss the rain/snow in Cochise County - see post below).

Winds did gust 30 to 40+ mph at many sites across southeastern Arizona.

The NWS morning outlook (below) indicates rapid warming for the weekend and next week.

Little Change

Clear skies continue this morning.

There has been little change in the model forecasts for tonight, relative to yesterday's post. However,

the GEFS plumes for QPF (above) at the airport have diminished considerably relative to yesterday's (below).

The 06 UTC WRF-GFS still forecasts a windy day today (as per above), and only a touch of precipitation on the mountain tops (below). The NWS morning forecast continues with a 50% chance of measurable rain at the airport tonight.

Complicated Situation

Pre-sunrise views this morning from San Simon above and Show Low at bottom.

At 500 mb this morning (above from 06 UTC GFS forecasts) there is a strong, east/west short wave along the northwestern US border. This feature is forecast to move, mostly over land, to be nearly over Tucson by 12 UTC on Friday morning - below.

However, the air over the western US is extremely dry - as per 7:00 am MST analysis of TPW shown below. So the system will be very starved for moisture.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate chances for light showers at the airport on Thursday night, but the range is large. Some of the members are obviously picking up some moisture with the system. Below are the plumes for temperature and wind from the same runs, indicating cool Friday and windy tomorrow.

Shown here are two forecasts from the 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo. Above graphic shows wind forecast valid at 3:30 pm tomorrow afternoon, which is similar to the GEFS above.

 However, the WRF forecast of precipitation (below) valid through 6:00 am on Saturday morning keeps any precipitation well north of southeastern Arizona.

Thus, there are different outcomes in the models, as the 500 mb short wave sweeps across our area. Current forecast from the NWS indicates a 40% chance of measurable rainfall at the airport during Thursday night. While sprinkles are possible, I'll be really surprised to get measurable rain here at the house - time will tell.

Continued Fair And Mild

View of the Catalinas from downtown at 7:30 am MST shows cloudless skies over the mountains. View of sunrise from San Simon at about 6:40 am, at bottom, shows some high cloud and perhaps a bit of a contrail.

Forecast above is from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo. It shows total precipitation forecast by that version of the WRF through 11:00 am on March 14th (next Monday).

Plumes from the 06 UTC runs of the GEFS are for temperature (above) and wind (below). Most notable on these forecasts is the strong warming after the 11th, and strong winds on the 10th (next Thursday). So it looks like an enjoyable week of Chamber of Commerce weather.

Blowing Dust

Clear skies this morning, with only a bit of dust still hanging in the air. View above of Catalinas and from San Simon at bottom.

Strong winds yesterday affected much of the state, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph very common. Views here are of Monument Valley (above) and along I-10 east of Tucson (below). The dust blowing off the Willcox Playa (below) shut down I-10 yesterday afternoon.

Notable gusts yesterday were: 43 mph at the airport; 53 mph at Pioneer Airfield; 52 mph Ft. Huachuca; and 70 mph at the exposed, Guthrie RAWS site.

Windy Today

Views of the Catalinas (above and bottom) at just a bit before 7:00 am MST, when clouds were providing some nice color to start the day.

Meteorological spring (Mar, Apr, May) is off to a quiet start here in the Southwest, with mild temperatures and dry conditions. Main issues will be windy conditions today and a bit cooler over the weekend.

Two forecasts from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo are shown here. Above shows steady wind speeds forecast for 12:30 pm today. Below shows total precipitation forecast through 11:00 am on the 11th of March - models leave southeast Arizona high and dry. 

So it goes.

Unsettled Through The Weekend

Heavy clouds over Catalinas at a bit before 7:00 am MST this morning: from campus above, and from the SkyCenter on Mt. Lemmon at bottom.

Plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS for the airport are for temperature above; wind speeds below; and QPF second below.

Temperatures generally cool through Sunday and then recover a bit. Wind speeds are forecast to be strongest tomorrow, and QPF forecasts show two periods with very slight chances for light showers.

These two forecasts are from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo. The radar forecast above indicates showers over the metro area at 10:00 pm tonight, while the wind forecast for noon tomorrow also indicates a windy day for southeast Arizona.

Current NWS morning forecast for the airport is for wind gusts as high as 38 mph tomorrow afternoon, with chances for areas of blowing dust. There is also a Red Flag warning out for much of southeast Arizona tomorrow (two areas shown on NWS web page; the second graphic shows the correct warning area).