Complicated Situation

Pre-sunrise views this morning from San Simon above and Show Low at bottom.

At 500 mb this morning (above from 06 UTC GFS forecasts) there is a strong, east/west short wave along the northwestern US border. This feature is forecast to move, mostly over land, to be nearly over Tucson by 12 UTC on Friday morning - below.

However, the air over the western US is extremely dry - as per 7:00 am MST analysis of TPW shown below. So the system will be very starved for moisture.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate chances for light showers at the airport on Thursday night, but the range is large. Some of the members are obviously picking up some moisture with the system. Below are the plumes for temperature and wind from the same runs, indicating cool Friday and windy tomorrow.

Shown here are two forecasts from the 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo. Above graphic shows wind forecast valid at 3:30 pm tomorrow afternoon, which is similar to the GEFS above.

 However, the WRF forecast of precipitation (below) valid through 6:00 am on Saturday morning keeps any precipitation well north of southeastern Arizona.

Thus, there are different outcomes in the models, as the 500 mb short wave sweeps across our area. Current forecast from the NWS indicates a 40% chance of measurable rainfall at the airport during Thursday night. While sprinkles are possible, I'll be really surprised to get measurable rain here at the house - time will tell.