Sunday's Star story is now on track - see above IR image - and to be fair I should mention that the Sunday story was from AP and not locally written. The activity out to the west of Jimena is from the remnants of TS Kevin and there is a huge cloud cluster at low-latitudes south of Jimena - so the tropics/subtropics are very active!
Underchaotic skies, it was a red sunrise this morning - back at the Military Weather Warning Center we used to say "Red sky in the morning; tornado without warning!" However that little maxim doesn't fit out here at all.
We did not get the strong low-level push of moisture that I'd expected from the GoC - the leading 500 mb impluse is just now passing and the pressure gradient at the surface has now reversed. There is a 2 to 3 mb down-the-Gulf gradient after 2 to 4 mb rises in Arizona in the wake of the MCS. So moisture is on a gradual rise from the synoptic flow above 850 mb couple with a lot of recycling from yesterday's storms. There is abundant cloud cover over western Arizona (where the largest increases in precipitable water have occurred) and over southern Arizona and northern Mexico so that there will be some reductions in daytime heating. Increased low-level moisture may lead to a double boudary layer structure today, making the forecast difficult. Yesterday's WRF runs for day 2 indicated downslope easterly winds today acting to suppress storm activity in the southeast. This will be the key forecast issue today. The NAM this morning indicates that the storms and rains will tend to avoid the southeast today also. This is problemattic since the morning upper-air charts don't indicate strong easterlies. I will await the WRF runs with great interest.
Careful watch needed again as the afternoon evolves. In the longer term the overall event this week depends upon the track of Jimena and how much moisture she carries with her as she decays.
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