Yesterday the expected uptick in storm activity did occur (see 0400Z regional radar above), except that it started just west and northwest of the Tucson metro area. The storms persisted through the night and there was a morning MCS over the lower Colorado River Basin. Rains were light as per most August events with a lot of wind and dust. With gusts over 40 mph noted at Phoenix, Luke AFB, and Kingman and even quarter-sized hail at Skull Valley. Here in the metro area only 9 stations in the Pima County ALERT network had measurable rain.
My subjective appraisal of yesterday's model forecasts is that the WRF, both versions, was far superior to the NAM. However, both versions brought lines of storms through the Tucson metro area.
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