Jimena Doesn't Make It Past Central GoC

Well I have to admit that I'm worn down by this frustrating summer, and the so far dismal amount rain associated with Jimena is like a final punch. There were some thundershowers across the metro area yesterday but rainfall amounts were very light. Rain occurred at only 10 of the 93 ALERT sites during the past 24-hours. In contrast, Jim Means (Alpine CA east of San Diego) reports:

"Combined monsoon and Jimena fringe moisture contributed to very high precipitable water values over Southern California yesterday. PW at San Diego reached 49.6 mm in the 00Z sounding and the deep moisture and strong heating caused several rounds of strong thunderstorms over our mountains and inland valleys, beginning shortly after 10am. Several places had 1+ inch of rain with local flooding. Dime-sized hail and a funnel cloud were also reported. At my house I had to settle for thunder and lightning in the morning and again in the afternoon, but no rain. Looking for some sort of repeat performance today."

Jimena has stalled and the remnant core may actually be moving a bit to the southeast over western Mexico. the NHC predicts the remnant low-level circulation to drift west back across Baja. Regardless, we will have to be satisfied with the nice increases in low-level moisture that have occurred over Arizona.

The overall large-scale pattern across all of soutwest North America is very chopped up, with numerous small features embedded here and there within the large 500 mb anticyclone. The Tucson sounding indicates a layer of easterly steering flow with upper-level winds reamaing westerly. There is some CAPE, which could be enhanced by local heating. Thus, it appears to me that things will be very driven by small scale details today. The NAM indicates a nice area of storms across southeast Arizona both today and tomorrow. I'm so beaten up that I've reached a state of "I'll believe it when I see it."