This morning a very large area of storms and disturbed weather continued from the south end of the GoC southward to 10 degrees North off the southwestern Mexican coast. There is now a very large circulation spinning away to the southwest of the end of Baja - very close examination of satellite loops indicates that there may well be two circulations embedded within the larger low pressure area. It is a very interesting situation and presumably the NHC will append some formal identification to the system(s) later this evening or tonight.
The issue of most immediate interest is how far north the push of subtropical moisture will come before the front from the northwest pushes through tomorrow. The satellite PW loops indicate that the moist subtropical air has now pushed up to about 30 degrees north - as indicated also per current Td readings of 79F at Guaymas (??) and 66F at Hermosillo. The models indicate that the moisture plume will push north mainly into New Mexico. However, with strong pressure falls to the north and the rapid northward progress of the moist air during the past 36 hours, it is possible that moisture could affect southeastern Arizona briefly tomorrow - it is an interesting situation worth watching.
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