Yesterday was very suppressed over much of southeast arizona. Only 3 ALERT stations mesured precipitation and these were all up in the Catalina Mountains.
Pattern remains very complicated and with weak flow below 500 mb. Precipitable water continues a slow downward trend, as residual low-level moisture is gradually mixed away. CAPE today appears restricted to the mountains and also to New Mexico which has much more moisture and CAPE present and the potential for local heavy storms. Surface pressures continue to rise. At 500 mb a very extended trough lies within the broader anticyclone. This trough extends from southern California, across Arizona and then southwest new Mexico before dipping into south Texas, and then swinging northeastward across Arkansas and on eastward to the coast. Anticyclonic circulation centers are over: central California, central Baja, southern Wyoming, the Gulf of Mexico, and southeast Canada - what a mess!
The NAM forecasts that a very large, Rex-like block will develop over the US by Sunday afternoon (see above 500 mb forecast). The model continues to forecast showers over southeast Arizona for the next couple of days, but these will mostly be in the mountains. Here at the house I suspect that we'll not have much hope for rains unless another tropical system were to head north late next week, as the ECMWF seems to hint.
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