Wet microburst over the Catalina Foothills yesterday evening produced by the small storm whose radar image is shown below - looking slightly east of north from house at about 6 pm MST.
There have only been slight changes in the overall situation since yesterday's discussion.
The weak 500 mb trough that is embedded within the larger 500 mb anticyclone has shifted slowly and now lies from northeast New Mexico southwestward across extreme northern Sonora, with quite a bit of residual cloudiness along it.
The shift of the trough has led to northeasterly winds in the layer from 500 mb to 300 mb -giving some hope of a defined steering flow, but the NAM forecast indicates weaking wind speeds by evening.
There seems to be a very slow down trend in precipitable water; dewpoints remain high across southern Arizona; and the lower half of troposphere continues to have low to moderate amounts of CAPE, but with a weak and chaotic wind regime holding forth. Thus, a somewhat similar day to yesterday should repeat with storms forming easily on mountains and then trying to propagate toward the south or southwest.
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