Monday, October 04, 2010

Cloudy Morning In Tucson

It's a cool and damp morning here at the house. There was lightning and thunder here last night a bit before 11 pm and we ended up with 0.03". The 00Z Tucson composite radar image from yesterday afternoon is shown above and indicates most activity off in Cochise and and Santa Cruz Counties, very much as the WRF model had predicted yesterday. Rainfall reports were generally quite light. Across the ALERT network 19 stations (about 20% areal coverage) had measureable rain during the past 24-hours. Amounts were gererally less than a 1/10th of an inch - except for the Mescal station on the flanks of the Rincons, which had 0.67" yesterday afternoon in a heavy storm. ATMO had 0.03" also and with a gust to 48 mph during the nighttime thunderstorm, while DM and TUS had thunder and a trace. Heaviest rains yesterday were reported over in the Chiricahuas - RAWS stations had 0.55" at Headquarters and 1.42" at Rucker.
The ATMO 0600 UTC run of the WRF model had problems this morning, with a large area of
light to moderate rains forecast from Tucson, extending southwest into Mexico, at dawn. There are light showers this morning but generally off to the east and southeast. The model does forecast much increased afternoon storm activity over central and east Pima County this afternoon, however, the problems in the forecast's first six hours may have impacts on the rest of the run. So, those who follow the ATMO WRF should check the latests forecasts later this morning. Generally after tonight, all the models tend to keep the precipitation with the large cutoff low in the west up in the Great Basin and northern Arizona.

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