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Top figure shows the dual cutoffs at 500 mb over the US - if interested, scroll down to the "Looking Ahead" post and you'll see that the ECMWF was vastly superior in the long range forecasts for this situation, when compared to the GFS.
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Tucson sounding this morning was taken within the band of showers and is not representative of the larger-scale - temps were too warm and there was only a bit of CAPE. Other soundings indicate temps at 500 mb this afternoon of -10 to -12C. PWs are increasing over southeast Arizona and decreasing over southwest Arizona, where dry air has pushed in from the west at low-levels.
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The SPC has a slight risk area over Arizona for today and a large area of strong storms is currently underway southeast of Flagstaff in the Rim Country. I also see a new storm has already developed over south Tucson - so looks like an active day.
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Bottom two images show the midnight WRF and morning NAM rainfall forecasts ending near midnight tonight and both are very similar!
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