Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Finally, Quick Look At Today

This morning's Tucson sounding (top) remains moist and very unstable in low-levels, with dry air above 600 mb. The wind shear profile is very favorable for severe storms. At 500 mb (middle) temperatures remain very cool over Arizona at -12 to -16C. Thus, at first glance there would appear to at least some threat of more storms today. However, model forecasts indicate little activity in southern Arizona today. The model forecasts rapidly advect drier air northward from Sonora, shifting the storm threat to the north. The current GOES PW image (not shown) indicates the presence of this very dry air in northern Sonora, so the models appear to be on track.
The bottom photo is from John Diebold and was taken last evening as the intense arc of storms moved northward. Location is from west of the Tucson Mountains. John reported that power was out for several hoours over there due to downed power poles - so another severe report in the Tucson area.

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