Saturday, October 23, 2010

Late October Weather Misc.

Couple of things this morning.
First, the top image shows a skew-T plot from U. of WY sounding page - Davenport IA, at 12 UTC this morning (Saturday Oct. 23rd 2010). The RRS sounding is quite a strange one. The sonde apparently had a bad RH sensor that measured almost no response to changes during the flight. Further, it has a large, warm spike near 0C that was likely due to water freezing on the thermistor, or inside the sonde package. An ugly piece of bad data headed into the archives.
The models forecast a very significant storm to deepen over the Plains and move northward across Lake Superior by mid-week next week. The 500 mb and 850 mb forecasts from this morning's NAM run are shown in the bottom two images. At 00 OUTC on Wednesday it's forecast to be a very strong (surface pressure near 970 mb), wrapped up system and, if it materializes as forecast, will likely bring gales to the western Great Lake states.
Thirty-five years ago (on Nov. 10th, 1975), the iron ore freighter Edmund Fitzgerald went down in Lake Superior during a similar storm, that had rapidly deepened and then moved into Canada north of Lake Superior. Canadian singer Gordon Lightfoot memorialized the ship, its lost crew, and the great storm in his well-known song, The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald.

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