Sunday, January 30, 2011

Rain Here before End Of Month?

The 500 mb cutoff that has plowed through the Pacific ridge is now along the northern California coast. This system will open into a short-wave that will swing across Arizona  tomorrow. The big question is whether there will be much in the way of measurable precipitation in southeast Arizona. The top image shows heavy cirrus moving in this morning. The middle and bottom graphics show QPF forecasts for total precipitaion ending at 5 pm tomorrow afternoon (the 31st of January 2011). The NAM forecast from the morning 12 UTC initialization indicates from 0.10 to 0.25" of precipitation across the low elevations of southeast arizona; whereas, the U of A version of the WRF model (initialized at midnight last night - bottom panel) forecasts precipitaion for the same period to be more sparse with amounts across the metro area of zero to 0.10" and amounts of significance only at the highest elevations.
Quick note - the 84-hour NAM forecast ahas trended very much toward the ECMWF from yesterday - see post below - with VERY cold thicknesses here by Wednesday evening - might there be enough moisture left to squeeze out some snow showers here in town?

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