Friday, January 28, 2011

Slight Chance Of Showers Last Day Of Month

First - more ups and downs in the low temperatures. Wind went calm here at house and temperature at 7am was 26F - down 19F from same time yesterday. Airport dropped to 37F at the same time; down 8F from
The models are indicating a slight chance for showers on Monday the 31st of January, which is the first chance of precipitation here in southeast Arizona since December 30th. The forecast panels above (all valid at 5 pm on Monday January 31st) are: NAM 500 mb from 1200 UTC this morning; GFS surface from 0000 UTC last evening; and 500 mb and surface from ECMWF last evening. The models indicate that a 500 mb cutoff/short wave will break through the Pacific coast ridge and then get nearly in phase with a short wave digging down the east side of ridge from western Canada. The ECMWF is a bit faster with this system than is this morning's NAM. The GFS and ECMWF hint at a chance of showers while the NAM indicates limited moisture coming in with the system from the Pacific. The ridge pops back up along the coast and a very cold high comes south for mid-week. But, finally something for weather watchers in the far Southwest!

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