Last Tuesday morning's run of the U of A, WRF-GFS model at midnight indicated a band of light showers would move across the Tucson area around 3 pm (top image). Here at the house we actually had a slight sprinkle, and thus a trace of rain, around 2 pm as virga and light showers had developed, much as forecast by the model. Radar at 2 pm is shown just above, indicating that the WRF forecast was quite good for this very marginal weather event. The model appears to have over-forecast precipitation to the north at higher elevations. The radar echoes over southwest Arizona are from chaff releases above the DoD ranges out there.
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