It's another hot and breezy afternoon here in Tucson - a bad allergy day also. Shown above at top: the NCAR RAP 500 mb analysis from 12 UTC May 7th. Note that 500 mb heights at Tucson were 5800 m this morning. The system that will dig slowly southward and impact the western US during the next 3 days was just off Vancouver Island this morning. As the system digs south, 500 mb heights will be falling, and today will be the last day where we flirt with 100F for a while.
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The middle chart is the 3 pm surface plot - again from NCAR RAP. Tucson was at 96F with a -8F dewpoint and winds of 15 to 20 mph. There are a couple of 100F readings again out in the lower Colorado River area. Winds are considerably stronger over northern Arizona, the Mojave, and the Great Basin. Note the -14F dewpoint at Truth-or-Consequences, New Mexico. Depoints remain bonkers at FHU and CGZ in southeastern Arizona.
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Bottom image is current NAM 500 mb forecast for midnight Tuesday night. Note that 500 mb heights are forecast to drop to around 5640 m, down about 160 m. A strong vorticity maximum moves eastward across central and southern Arizona during the day Tuesday, but the model currently forecasts the strong dynamic forcing for vertical motion to work on very dry air - so what we can count on is more wind and dust and blowing pollen. Will watch to see if the system can manage to pull a bit of Pacific moisture into it before it exits to the east.
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