Tuesday, August 28, 2012

The "I" Storms

Tropical Storm Isaac (above at 1345 UTC this morning) is approaching the Louisiana coast today. It is not clear whether or not the storm will become a hurricane before it goes ashore. However, Isaac poses serious storm surge threats, due to the long fetch of strong winds over the Gulf to the east of its center.

Meanwhile TS Ileana has formed in the east Pacific - below is an IR image from 14 UTC this morning.

Ileana is forecast to move northwestward (current NHC forecast above), crossing 20N 115W. It is not clear whether Ileana will push more moist air into the lower Colorado River Basin. The CIRA blended PW product from 14 UTC (below) shows that high PW values already extend into southwestern Arizona (as forecast by the WRF-GFS yesterday). Hector had strong influences on keeping mT air in the Southwest, but he had a more northerly track. Will have to watch Ileana the next several days, given that very high PW is very close!

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