Next Weather System

The first weather system of February struck over the past weekend and brought an extended period of thick middle and high clouds, and that was it. However, the next system looks a bit more interesting (but nothing like the major storm forecast for the Northeast). There are also significant differences in the model forecasts

at 96-hours (i.e., valid at 5 am MST on Saturday morning 9 February). The NWS GFS forecast at 500 mb valid at that time (above) indicates an elongated short wave that stretches from southern Canada to southern California. The ECMWF forecast valid the same time, however, predicates a significant closed low over the Great Basin with a strong vorticity maximum over central Arizona. The ECMWF forecast would bring a strong Pacific front through southeastern Arizona late Friday afternoon with wind, dust, and possibly showers along the front. The GFS forecasts a less distinct front and no precipitation for southeast Arizona. Both of these forecasts are from the operational members of the two models.  Both models forecast much colder thicknesses by Saturday and it will be interesting to see if the faster and stronger ECMWF forecast verifies better than the GFS forecast. The ECMWF heights at 500 mb are about 120 m lower than the GFS over central Arizona on Saturday morning.