Valentine's Day Miscellany

The last five mornings have been quite chilly here at the house. The low temperatures from the 10th of February through this morning, the 14th, have ranged from 24F to 28F. Down at the airport the official lows have ranged from 29F to 34F, so it's been about 5 to 6F colder here along the Rillito. This week will

continue with fair and mild weather. However, the professional golfers will be in town next week for their unusual match-play tournament. This event has seemed to be a magnet for wintry weather, with the start of the last day delayed by snow either last year or year before. The course they play is out north in the Tortolita Mountains and at elevations around 4,000 ft MSL. Photo above shows tents and stuff at the course. Note the widespread, invasive, non-native grass out there. Tucson is down in the dirty air in the distance (photo is looking south with the downtown buildings just showing in the murk).

The long range forecast models bring the spell of nice weather to an end during the golf tournament. The above is the operational ECMWF 500 mb forecast valid at 5 pm MST on Wednesday the 20th (tournament runs from the 18th to the 24th).

As for the GFS, it too forecasts substantial change next week. The ensemble-average 500 mb forecast (above) for 5 pm MST on Tuesday the 19th indicates a deep trough along the west coast. It is interesting how little spread there is in the GFS ensembles at 144-hours (below). All the members have about the same forecast for North America. Will be interesting to watch how this evolves.