Friday, October 18, 2013

Bit More On Outlooks From NWS CPC


I looked a bit more at CPC's web page this morning to find information about how these outlooks are made. There is a discussion of the forecast tools used (7 of them, including a 40-member ensemble forecast model) at:       http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools.html

However, I didn't find anything about how the outputs from these tools are distilled into the final outlook products. Perhaps I just didn't look in the right spots? The following is from the discussion of the skill of these forecasts at the link above (which is similar to what I wrote yesterday):

FOR ALL MODELS PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY LESS SKILLFUL THAN 
TEMPERATURE -- WITH MARGINAL SKILL FOR ALL TOOLS EVEN IN THEIR BEST SEASONS AND 
LOCATIONS UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES.  HOWEVER WHEN STRONG EL NINO OR LA NINA 
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT - PRECIPITATION SKILL CAN BE AS HIGH AS TEMPERATURE SKILL 
FOR COOL SEASON FORECASTS FOR A NUMBER OF AREAS OF THE U.S. - INCLUDING THE 
SOUTHERN THIRD - THE NORTHERN ROCKIES - THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY.  
STRONG LA NINA CONDITIONS IMPLY THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION SKILL 
FOR SOME PARTS OF THE WARM SEASON AS WELL. 

I've shown two more outlooks here that illustrate another head scratcher. At the top is the current 8-14 day temperature outlook valid through October 31st. Below is the current outlook for November temperature. To me these indicate almost a binary transition to a different pattern at the end of October, since I don't see any evidence of a transition between the two maps.


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