Another Wind Event For Much of Arizona

The strong, 500 mb closed low over western Nevada is forecast by the latest NAM to move slowly east-northeastward and gradually weaken during the next 48-hours. As the system moves across the northern Great Basin today it will produce strong and gusty winds across most of the Southwest.

Here are several forecasts from the early, 06 UTC, WRF-NAM forecast runs at Atmo this morning. Above is forecast of 10-m winds, on the 5.4 km grid, valid at 8 am this morning (Monday, October 28th). Strongest winds at that time were forecast over far northwest Arizona and the southern great Basin. The system is fairly dry and the model forecast of total precipitation through midnight tomorrow night is shown below, again on the 5.4 km grid. Heaviest precipitation from this event forecast to be in western Nevada and the California Sierra Nevada range. Arizona picks up some precipitation, mostly on the Kaibab Plateau and along the Mogollan Rim country.

Here in southern Arizona winds are forecast (above is 10-m winds on the 1.8 km grid valid at 5 pm MST) to be strong during the afternoon today, but not nearly as strong as to the north. There will probably be some local blowing dust. The soil here along the Rillito is powder dry, as it has been most of the summer.