The presence of two typhoons over the Pacific (image above is IR from 06 UTC this morning) will complicate the predictability of the global models over the weekend and early next week. Lekima is a Cat 5, super-typhoon currently with winds over 150 mph. Both of these storms are forecast to become extra-tropical and head into the north Pacific, south of Alaska.
The GFS ensembles are fairly consistent out to 120-hours but then by 168-hours (grahic below shows 168-hour GFS ensemble average -left- and spaghetti plot of member solutions - right- all at 500 mb) there is very substantial spread among the forecasts. The uncertainty is centered over the eastern Pacific and western US. It will be interesting to watch how this all plays out. Some ensemble members even bring the remnants of Hurricane Raymond into play.
No comments:
Post a Comment