The current short wave digging south toward southern California has not been able to advect subtropical moisture into it as of this morning. Above is CIMSS PW product at 9 UTC this morning and below is 12 UTC water vapor image - both indicate limited moisture for southern Arizona at this time.
The early run of the WRF-NAM at Atmo continues to forecast very strong south-southwesterly winds this afternoon (Wednesday, October 9th) for much of Arizona - above forecast of 10-m wind speeds is valid at 4 pm this afternoon. The model also forecasts a band of increased PW along the cold front tomorrow morning - the PW forecast below is valid at 9 am Thursday morning - note however that values stay quite low over southeast Arizona.
Finally, the model manages to forecast some rain at the ground out in central/western Pima County and the over the Catalinas. The forecast below is for total precipitation through 6 pm tomorrow evening - so much of southeast Arizona has winds and dust today and clouds and sprinkles as the front moves through tomorrow morning.
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