Friday, April 25, 2014

Quick Look At WRF For Tomorrow

The early WRF-NAM from Atmo forecasts several areas of light showers to affect portions of southeast Arizona tomorrow afternoon - forecast of composite radar echoes above is valid at 3 pm MST on Saturday the 26th. Winds are forecast to be strong as per previous post - the WRF forecasts a morning period of strong south-southwesterly winds, before the front moves through, and strong westerly winds in the afternoon. Forecast below is of 10-m winds valid at 3 pm tomorrow.

As with the last several systems, the WRF forecasts rainfall, and some snow, primarily at high elevations over southeast Arizona (above graphic shows WRF-NAM rainfall totals forecast through 11 pm tomorrow night.. The new NWS NAM from this morning (below is forecast precipitation through 5 am Sunday morning) remains similar to the early forecast from Atmo, with most of southern Arizona remaining dry. However, precipitable water ahead of last weekend's system increased more than the models forecast, so the system coming in may produce more showers over lower elevations, if the strong southerly winds bring higher moisture into the state ahead of the Pacific cold front.

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