Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Quick Look At Today

The morning sounding from TWC is shown above. Lower layers have dried considerably between 850 and 700 mb, resulting in PW of only around an inch. There is a layer of CAPE centered around 600 mb and this will probably be enough for isolated mountain storms this afternoon.

The 500 mb cyclone lingers around San Diego for 36 to 48 hours before it pulls out. Cooler air is circulating around this system and low-level winds will be come more southerly during next 24-hours. Thus, moisture should recover quickly and there should be an uptick in storms tomorrow. The warm layer aloft, around 400 mb, is hostile to convection, but cooling may occur in that layer (warm axis at 400 mb extends from TUS to ELP), which would increase CAPE markedly.

Finally, moisture values are very high with TS Lowell west of Baja (below is MIMIC PW from CIMSS). The new NAM forecasts try to bring significant moisture from Lowell across Baja and into the lower Colorado River Basin by the end of forecast period. Something to watch.

No comments:

Post a Comment