Water vapor image from 11 UTC this morning (above) indicates the upper-level cyclone located west of Baja and a large area of convection south of 20 degrees N. The MIMIC blended PW analysis for 09 UTC (below, from CIRA at Colorado State) shows that PW greater than two inches remains south of 20 degrees N, but that values of around an inch or more have pushed north across the southern half of the GoC.
All of the various models move the closed low northward tomorrow over southern California and continue the push of subtropical moisture into Arizona and southern California. The details differ, of course, between various models but all forecast a significant precipitation for most of Arizona and particularly for southern California. The two forecasts of accumulated precipitaion shown here are valid through 6:00 am MST on Tuesday morning, January 27th. Above forecast is from the 00 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo, while below is from the 06 UTC WRF-NAM. Both forecasts keep the heaviest rains out over central and western Pima County, but still bring a nice event into the Tucson metro area.
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