As the 500 mb cyclone near Baja moves northward, increased moisture is moving north on both sides of Baja. Above is visible satellite image from 2230 UTC this afternoon (January 6th). Below is 22 UTC blended PW from CIRA at Colorado State University - values of PW near and greater than an inch have progressed almost half way up the GoC. The models are quite variable with the forecast for the next several days and if we get some showers it is currently not very clear when they might materialize. So, we can definitely count on increasing clouds and virga and sprinkles but measurable rain chances and timing remain more ambiguous at this time.
What is most definite is that the westward push of the arctic high pressure from the Southern Plains will bring strong easterly winds to our area. Graphic below shows the WRF-GFS forecast of 10-m winds valid at noon tomorrow. The model keeps the winds strong through Wednesday night into Thursday. So low temperatures may jump all over the place, depending on where and when the winds blow - add in the cloud cover and temperature forecasts become a challenge also for next several days. Today was an example - temperature dropped briefly to 40 F at airport but was down to 27 F here at house.
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