The next 500 mb short wave is moving across southern California at this time and will be impacting Arizona tonight and tomorrow morning. The surface plot above is from just before 3 pm MST (Sunday, January 11th) and indicates some rainfall occurring into northwestern Arizona.
The morning WRF forecasts from Atmo indicate widespread, light rainfall with this system - much as per the last event on Thursday the 8th. Forecast above is of composite radar echoes and is valid at 11 pm MST tonight. Forecast below is of total precipitation through noon tomorrow. Both forecasts are from the WRF-NAM initialized at 12 UTC this morning. So, weather conditions across eastern Pima County should deteriorate rapidly late this afternoon and evening as the short wave approaches.
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