A fast-moving storm will impact the Northeast U.S. today, as it brings snow and strong winds to New England. Above graphic shows current NWS alerts for that region.
Here in the Southwest attention will be on the closed low that is strengthening off Baja this morning. This system will advect subtropical moisture northward over the weekend and bring showers and possibly some thunderstorms into southern Arizona on Monday. The 06 UTC run of the WRF-NAM forecasts PW values to increase to over an inch over portions of Arizona by 11 am MST on Monday (above - on the 5.4 km grid). Forecast below is for composite radar echoes valid at 1 pm on Monday, while bottom graphic shows model-forecasted precipitation through 11 pm on Monday night.
This all is out at day three, so the details of how the situation will actually evolve still have considerable uncertainty. Currently the models are indicating a significant event for January. The GFS model ensembles, all 12 members, forecast rainfall for much of Arizona during the day Monday, which usually translates into rain in the gauge here at house.
The long-range forecasts indicate the possibility for another Arizona storm as the Super Bowl crowd overruns Phoenix next weekend.
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