Thursday, February 04, 2016

January Summary/Start Of February

The entire month of January had only one rainy period from the 4th to the 8th, but we had 1.36" of rain here at house during those days. This January was fifth wettest during past 17 years here - so not a bad month. The wettest during those years was 2.96" in 2010, while the driest was 0.00" in 2006.

Many cold mornings here during the month - 19 mornings with a low of 32 F or colder and 9 of these were at 28 F or colder, with 25 F on two mornings being coldest.

However, yesterday morning was the coldest morning here of the winter so far with a low of 19 F, and it feels about that cold again this morning.

February started with a damp day on the 1st, but the GEFS models don't indicate much hope for most of the month's first half. The operational GFS forecast of total precipitation through 00 UTC on the 14th is shown above. The GEFS QPF plumes through the 11th (below) have flatlined - so not much on the weather horizon.

The NWS CPC outlook for February is shown above, indicating good chances for a wet month in the Southwest. However, the current 6 to 10 day outlook (below) mirrors the GFS model and indicates dismal dryness through the 13th. So, if the month is to eventually turn out wet, we'll have to hope for an active pattern during the second half.

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