Quick look At PW This Morning

The WRF forecasts from 06 UTC this morning continue to forecast a chance of some sprinkles late this afternoon into tomorrow morning. Low-level moisture remains sparse and we may see some middle-level clouds with virga, mammatus, and some sprinkles around.

The MIMIC composite PW analysis (above from 10 UTC) this morning indicates a distinct atmospheric river from low-latitudes into southern California - where there has been rain and showers last night and this morning. The PW forecast below (from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo) is also valid at 10 UTC.

The front associated with this AR feature gradually weakens during the next 36-hours and little in the way of low-level moisture penetrates inland across the coastal ranges. The forecast at the bottom from the WRF-GFS is valid at 5:00 pm MST tomorrow afternoon and shows a weakening and broadening area of higher PW. But, values remain quite low over southeastern Arizona. Thus, we apparently have an example of an AR that tried but couldn't do much for Arizona.