First, at 168-h the ECMWF forecast (above) was very bad and much inferior to the GFS. Apparently the GFS latched on to the downstream impacts of Super Typhoon Lan earlier than did the European model.
At 120-h the GFS (above) was too deep and a bit fast, but model did forecast closed low north of the Great Lakes - compare to NAM 500 mb analysis (below) for 00 UTC 28 October
The ECMWF 500 forecast at 120-h (below) had the heights over western Great Lake area better but had not closed off a cyclonic circulation yet. The ECMWF was also a bit fast.
The system did bring snow to Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, as well as very cold temperatures over the Dakotas this morning.
Overall, my subjective assessment is that the NWS GFS performed better than the ECMWF through this entire period.
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