Very clear and cool this morning, as per view of Catalinas above at sunrise. The morning low here was 46 F vs 57 F at the airport. The NWS grid point forecast for airport indicates high this afternoon of 97 F - so big diurnal swing indicated by the early morning forecast.
As high pressure builds over the West and Plains, we get a another backdoor front from the east. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of 10 m winds (below) indicates 20 mph and greater wind speeds over much of southeastern Arizona at 3:00 am MST on the 25th. The model's forecast sounding for Sonoita indicates wind gusts of up to 50 mph, or a bit higher, are likely at the Mt. Hopkins RAWS station from tomorrow afternoon through early morning on Wednesday.
I took a look this morning at the global model's operational, 500 mb forecasts again - both from 00 UTC last evening and valid at 00 UTC 28 October (above at 120 h. The same forecasts from both models shown below at 168 h - the ECMWF was clearly the loser wrt the GFS during this 48 h period - shifting toward the earlier GFS forecast with height forecast changes of +300 m at the Four Corners and height decreases of about 200 m at St. Louis. I'll do this comparison again from 00 UTC on the 25, but right now kudos for the GFS.
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