Cool morning here with low of 50 F at house and noticeably cooler down along the Rillito - very pleasant given the hot afternoons.
Strong pressure gradients with front moving westward across southern New Mexico will bring east winds later today. Sea-level pressures are over 12 mb higher over southeastern New Mexico than here in Tucson note the gust to 48 mph at Guadalupe Pass (above - 7:00 am MST surface plot). The lightning report from White Mountains is a bad observation. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast skew-T for Sonoita at 1:00 am tonight (below) indicates that winds may gust from 30 to 45 mph at the Mt. Hopkins RAWS site tonight.
In the longer term, the operational ECMWF (above) and NWS GFS (below) are both forecasting the tail-end of a short wave to dig into the Southwest next weekend - both forecasts valid at 5:00 pm next Saturday. The last several days the ECMWF was forecasting this feature to close-off over Arizona, but has now become progressive. However, several of the GEFS members forecast a closed low over Arizona at this time. So, we'll watch to see which model prevails.
Couple of shots here from Mesa Verde NP. Above is highest peak of Sleeping Ute Mountain looking west-northwest from Wetherill Mesa. Below is looking west from the visitor center at the entrance to the NP.
No comments:
Post a Comment