Tuesday, May 01, 2018

April To May

First - a summary for April:wind and dry and dusty with no precipitation here at house. Only significant note I have in my weather log is for April 12th: Winds to 50 mph here with significant dust. On to May.

The Tinder fire continues and has burned about 12,000 acres as of midnight. Weather up there should help the firefighters as temperatures drop and RH increases with showers today and tomorrow. Homes and ranches have burned, as per early morning videos today.

For southeastern Arizona the start of May features a large, positively tilted trough that will bring cooler weather and slight chances of showers. The 500 mb analysis above is from the SPC. This is yet another moisture-starved system - MIMIC analysis of total PW below is for 6:00 am MST this morning.

Forecast of PW from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo above is valid at 9:00 pm this evening and indicates a narrow band of increased PW along the frontal zone, with values reaching to around 20 mm. Forecast soundings for TWC in the evening are very stable, continue with dry low-levels, but are saturated above 600 to 700 mb. Perhaps some sprinkles/showers right along frontal zone. The WRF-GFS forecast below for accumulated precipitation through 5:00 pm tomorrow afternoon indicates that some parts of the Metro could have measurable, but light rainfall. Higher elevations do considerably better.

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