Here is my attempt at putting together the rain event mentioned in previous post. The GEFS QPF plumes for Greeley, Colardo, are repeated above. Below I fitted together two NWS QPE maps - top is for 24-hours ending 12 UTC yesterday and bottom is for 24-hours ending 12 UTC today. Color bar for the maps is in middle below. While it is hard to "eyeball" the totals, it looks to me like the GEFS means and also the ranges, were pretty good - with highest point rains resulting from heavy thunderstorms with hail. Clearly the operational GFS forecasts (blue) were extremely too wet. There was flooding in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and the Nebraska Panhandle. Nothing really comparable around here since last July.
Interestingly, the most significant rain event was for the 24-hours ending this morning, and stretched from west Texas into Missouri. These heavy rains were associated with severe thunderstorms and a nighttime to early morning MCS.
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